Every November, the Global Carbon Project publishes the Global CO of the Year2 Emissions are never good news At a time when the world needs to cut emissions, the numbers keep rising. However, while greenhouse gas emissions are moving in the wrong direction, many of the underlying economic forces driving them are changing. They go through the correctness. This year could be the year that these various forces push hard enough to finally tip the balance.
In 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it expects global energy emissions to peak by 2025. The estimate represents a big change from the previous year, driven by accelerated investment in post-war low-carbon technologies in Ukraine. Rystad Energy – another research and analysis group – also expects to peak by 2025. Ember Climate – the leading source of global electricity data – estimates that emissions from global electricity will peak in 2022. Analysts may disagree on the exact date, but it’s clear that the peak of the release is now well within our grasp.
The world is now steadily decarbonizing its electricity. Solar and wind are growing rapidly, and in 2024 these two renewable energy sources could outpace the increase in electricity demand. If this happens, the burning of coal and gas will decrease and greenhouse gas emissions will also decrease.
Not surprisingly, when we actually reach peak emissions depends a lot on the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, China. In 2023, its emissions were still increasing. This is partly due to its continued recovery from Covid-19. The persistent drought also means that its hydropower generation has declined. These factors again show how difficult these things are to predict: an unexpected event can always turn the peak into another record-breaking year.
However, due to the unprecedented deployment of solar and wind power and the rise of nuclear power, China’s peak will soon arrive. Soon, the country will add enough sustainable energy to cover its growing electricity demand. China’s solar and wind energy production is currently enough to cover the total electricity consumption of some of the world’s largest economies, such as Canada, Brazil, Russia, Japan, and even the world’s most populous country, India. In 2023 alone it could add enough to cover the UK’s total electricity consumption.
Another reason why global emissions may peak in 2024 is the electric car revolution. Global sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles peaked half a decade ago, and the International Energy Agency estimates that nearly one in five cars sold globally in 2023 will be electric. Previously, the agency was not expected to reach this milestone until 2030. (In 2020, that figure was just 4 percent.) This move toward electric cars will begin to reduce global oil demand until it peaks. That could be as early as 2027, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Of course, peak emissions are just the beginning. The world needs that time reduce Release, and quickly. But the downslope will be easier than the turning point, because the energy transfer will no longer be in its early stages. Hopefully 2024 will be the start of a mature low carbon global economy.
